German Chancellor Scholz loses confidence vote
By: Viola Shephard
Olaf Scholz, the current chancellor of Germany has lost his no-confidence vote. A no-confidence vote is when the prime minister calls to move up the election for the new prime minister. Scholz had called for the no-confidence vote, a major sacrifice on his part, and was not surprised to have lost it. By losing the no-confidence vote in mid-December, elections were moved back to February, instead of September, as previously scheduled. This means that instead of Germany’s government grinding to a halt while parties cannot reach a consensus, Germany moves forward by setting up new coalitions. Germany’s economy won’t advance, exacerbating the current economic problem. This will cause the people in Germany to put more faith in more extreme parties, like the Alternative for Germany Party (AfD), potentially removing multiple minority groups’ rights.
Germany’s government is made up of several smaller parties that try to gain a majority in the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament. To do this, the parties make coalitions with one another, made up of multiple parties. Scholz is part of the Social Democratic Party (SPD). The SPD is a center-left party that mainly represents the working class and trade unions, which means that a lot of their votes come from very industrial cities. After the firing of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) finance minister Christian Lindner, the ruling coalition in Germany collapsed. The coalition was previously made up of the SPD, the FDP, and the Green Party. The Green Party focuses on the environment and tends to do well with well-educated people in urban areas. In the past, the FDP has formed coalitions with both the SPD and the Christian Democratic Union (CPU), the main opponent of the SPD. The CPU, which aligns with the central right, is predicted to win in the next election. The CPU tends to do well among people in rural areas, while the SPD tends to attract voters in urban areas.
The problem with the collapse of the coalition is that all of Germany’s government is halted until a new coalition with over 50% of the votes in the Bundestag. Close to no laws will be passed until a new coalition is formed because the parties can’t agree and solidify an idea. All parties in the coalition have suffered because of the rise of the AfD party. The AfD party is a right-wing party that has had a speedy rise over the past couple of years, due to the current dissatisfaction in Germany both over the economy and over immigration. The AfD sets forward a very anti-immigration stance as well as an anti-diversity stance, which unfortunately 48,000 Germans have started to agree with. One of the standout statistics about the AfD party is that only 17% of their voters are women. The AfD looks to keep traditional household roles, which don’t allow women to work.
Germans are frustrated with their current economy, which, at the moment, has little economic growth. There has not been a lot of demand for the goods which are being manufactured, both in Germany, and outside of Germany. In 2023, Germany’s GDP declined by 0.3, which is an awful sign for their economy. The frustration has also led to the rise of the AfD, who present themselves as an alternative party to the SPD, which is frustrating the German people. The SPD has been frustrating the German people because of the low amounts of economic growth, which are causing businesses to struggle. The government cannot fix this until the next election because no party can agree on an economic policy.
Germany isn’t the only country struggling politically. The United Kingdom, after having made a major change in party, going from the over a decade ruling Conservative Party to the Labor Party, is now in a bad place economically, even after the prime minister, Keir Starmer, promised to cut government borrowing. In Italy, a far-right party, headed by Giorgia Melon, is in power and while the Italian economy currently seems stable, that is far from the truth. The country is predicted to hit economic troubles in the next couple of years because of the massive amount of debt Italy is in.
The UK and Italy are only two examples. The political instability throughout Europe tends to be a result of dissatisfaction with the economic status of the country. This causes the country’s people to choose different leaders in the next election, which results in parties flipping in and out of power. Because governments across Europe are dealing with political instability, the US’s economy is also effected because of suspended trade. The US trades with Europe, totaling $975.9 billion in 2024. If even one of the countries in Europe can no longer trade with the US due to economic instability, that has a massive effect on the US economy, possibly plunging the US into even more debt than the current amount of 36.22 trillion. This would be catastrophic for the US economy and it is essential to the health of the US economy to continue trading with Europe because otherwise, the US would lose multiple essential trading partners, including Germany, the UK, and Italy. While this scenario seems very unlikely, the current international dynamic may make it possible.
While the no-confidence vote in Chancellor Scholz may seem like an isolated incident, that is far from the truth. There is a wider picture of both economic and political instability in Europe. That instability may end up shaping how the next couple of decades pan out, not only for Germany but for the entire world, affecting everything from trade to global alliances.
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