Trudeau failed to recognize the signs of a failing tenure
By: Seth Kim
Under mounting opposition, Justin Trudeau resigned as the leader of the Liberal Party and the Prime Minister of Canada on January 6th, 2025. Recent polls show that the Liberal Party will trail the Conservative Party by a wide margin (79-205) after the election. However, if Trudeau had resigned earlier, he could have given his party a better opportunity to win the upcoming election.
After leading the Liberal party to a majority win in the 2015 federal election, Trudeau initially received favorable approval ratings behind his promise for “Real Change Now.” This promise included increased government transparency, increased citizen representation in the Canadian government through augmented powers for MPs, and gender equity through Canada’s first gender-balanced cabinet. Despite these promises, it wasn’t long before his reputation and popularity started dropping.
Trudeau’s reputation began to sour after the Blackface Scandal of 2019, in which photos of young Trudeau wearing blackface during the 1990s and 2000s surfaced on social media during the federal elections. Though he apologized for his racially offensive action, Trudeau continued to campaign. He continued to serve his tenure once he won, though his party was reduced to a minority government. In 2021, Trudeau’s popularity further dropped after he was found to have gone surfing on Canada’s Truth and Reconciliation Day, a somber holiday intended to allow Canadians to reflect on the country’s colonial history towards Indigenous people. Such insensitive actions of his own and his government’s key demographic group for the Liberal Party had irreversible consequences for his reputation.
Trudeau’s implementation of a carbon tax would render him even more unpopular, raising the prices of petrol and other fossil fuels during the post-Covid economic struggles. The carbon tax was initially intended to increase the cost of using fossil fuels and allow industries and consumers to transition to renewable energy, while subsequently repaying Canadian citizens through the Canada Carbon Rebate. However, since most of the consumers were below the emissions levels needed to pay the tax, many of them were receiving more money from the taxes than they initially paid, which disproportionately hurt companies and caused concerns about reduced competition. This carbon tax would ultimately form the basis for the campaign of Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, called “axe the tax.” The Conservatives knew the unpopularity of the carbon tax, so they focused most of their campaign on framing Trudeau for Canada’s problems and increased prices. This included the carbon tax, which was already unpopular in provinces like Alberta, which was a Conservative stronghold and an opponent of the carbon tax due to its heavy oil industry.
However, the collapse of the NDP-Liberal Coalition in September 2024 made it even more clear that Trudeau was incapable of leading his party to victory in the next election. The NDP and its founder, Jagmeet Singh, initially sided with Trudeau to secure the Liberal Party a majority during the next election. However, the NDP ended the coalition on the basis of high grocery and daily living costs that Trudeau did not rectify. The final straw for Trudeau’s tenure was the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, a key political ally and potential successor for the leadership of the Liberal Party, after a dispute over a tax holiday and the carbon tax in December 2024, which occurred in the midst of Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs against Canada and potential annexation of the country. As a result, when Trudeau resigned, the Liberal Party polled at 20.1% while the Conservative Party was at 44.2%.
Most Canadians will remember Justin Trudeau as an insensitive leader who fought for his power and legacy amid skyrocketing petrol costs. However, if Trudeau had decided earlier to give the Liberal Party and Canadian citizens a chance to be led by someone else who would better recognize the needs of Canadians, he could have cemented a legacy as someone who cared for Canada’s future.
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