Why Rishi Sunak might lose the next General Election
By: Rohan Jayaraman
Within the next year, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to call the nation’s next general election. Since 2019, the United Kingdom has seen three leaders struggle through the country’s biggest problems, navigating issues such as Brexit legislation, immigration, and the UK’s economic recovery after COVID-19. Initial polls have consistently predicted Labor Party leader Keir Starmer to outperform Rishi Sunak and lead the nation into 2025, making him the first Labor Prime Minister since Gordon Brown in 2010. Whilst UK citizens have been repeatedly frustrated with the Conservative Party’s treatment of Brexit and the pandemic, this shift in voting intention was catalyzed by Sunak’s controversial migrant policies and economic reform which have drastically reduced his popularity. Along with other long-term factors, the Conservative Party’s mismanagement of the migrant crisis and economic recovery will be the reasons they will most likely lose the next general election.
In December 2019, Boris Johnson won a landslide Conservative majority in the House of Commons with 365 seats. However, a mere five years later, the Conservative Party is polling to win as low as 155 seats, with Labor potentially holding a 150+ seat majority. The Tories were still able to dominate general elections with leaders like Theresa May holding decade-low approval ratings due to the disastrous handling of Brexit and a lack of overall cabinet support. So what has changed? After Boris Johnson’s resignation over the Partygate scandal, where the ex-Prime Minister hosted social events during the height of the pandemic, it only took Liz Truss 50 days of disastrous economic legislation to hand over leadership to Sunak. As the ex-chancellor of Exchequer, Sunak was expected to use his economic experience to steer the country out of the pandemic; however, his tenure as Prime Minister has been far from smooth sailing. From repeated criticism of his “out of touch” personality to his wife’s alleged tax avoidance to speculation over a looming recession and current cost of living crisis, Sunak has been forced to deal with many domestic issues in the past 18 months, and the public at large do not back his management of these challenges.
Of the Conservative Party’s “five key priorities for 2023,” three aimed to improve economic security through halving inflation, stimulating job creation, and reducing national debt. Operating under a platform that prides itself on economic experience, Sunak has not lived up to his party’s ambitious economic pledges. The UK economy recently slipped into an official recession and the British pound has been gradually losing its value relative to the dollar and the euro. While the rest of the world seems to have brushed off pandemic inactivity, the British economy has stagnated for the past two years. Although Sunak cannot be solely blamed for the current economic crisis, repeated strikes, lack of economic stimulation under his authority, and timid economic reform and tax mismanagement have all combined to mar his tenure. Even though the nation has recently seen a positive economic outlook with low unemployment rates and projections for reduced inflation, it might be too little and too late for the Conservative Party. With a platform dedicated to lifting the country out of the pandemic, it is understandable that voters might want to see a change in leadership, especially as many face the consequences of poor economic conditions through the cost of living crisis.
Despite a largely avoidable economic crisis, one of Sunak’s major faults has been his party’s treatment of immigration policies. Whilst his administration has repeatedly pledged to cut immigration, a record 1.2 million people migrated into the UK in the past year. Rishi Sunak’s “stop the boats” plan, which intended to send British asylum seekers to Rwanda, has faced backlash due to the party’s extreme stance on illegal immigration policy and many lawmakers citing the fact that Rwanda is unfit to take in these migrants. Sunak rehired Home Secretary Suella Braverman to his cabinet, who had been previously criticized for her extreme outlook on illegal immigration and other controversies. While she was eventually sacked, these moves highlight the party’s emphasis on making immigration one of their hallmark policies in the general election. While tightening down on immigration used to be an easy win for voters, Sunak’s cutthroat migrant policies combined with record-high immigration rates blur his party’s efficacy surrounding the issue. The British people have wanted to see tightened immigration for a while since Brexit reform, however, its economic stability is rooted in dependence on immigrants filling numerous job roles. General consensus is that immigration, especially illegal, should be managed, but the Conservative Party’s mishandled policies at the expense of their own economic well-being have been key issues that have shifted voter sentiment leading into the general election.
With Labor leader Keir Starmer poised to become Prime Minister at the next election, the next six months are key for the Conservative Party to follow up on their ambitious economic and immigration pledges to turn the tide of this election. The recent growth of the right-wing Reform Party under the backing of pro-Brexit figure Nigel Farage could also play a significant role in taking away Tory support. The Conservative Party has a mountain to climb to establish itself as a legitimate solution to resolve the nation’s immigration and economic problems, and Sunak must effectively carry out his migration plan and economic recovery for voters to even give him the slimmest chance at another five years in office.
