The threat to US interests by a Sino-Russian Alliance
By: Abby Brown
China and Russia have been fortifying their partnership, raising concerns about the security of US interests, NATO, and global democracy. The two nations recently established a “no limits” alliance, which encompasses significant trade, cooperation and mutual economic cooperation. Russian President Vladimir Putin also called Chinese President Xi Jinping a “dear friend,” signalling to the world the strength of their relationship. Collaboration between the two countries was especially escalated as Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin recently held three bilateral meetings in addition to a slew of joint military exercises. Russia has also strongly supported China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”—a deal that would facilitate trade between Asia, Europe and Africa. China and Russia supporting each other’s policies and affairs to such an extent undermines the salience of US-led international order systems.
Sino-Russian Military Exercise
From a domestic perspective, one major downside of this alliance is that increased bilateral trade decreases China and Russia’s reliance on the global economy and US goods. In 2023, trade between China and Russia reached $240 billion, a 26.3% increase from the previous year. China benefits from Russia’s discounted oil and mineral fuels after their invasion of Ukraine, while Russia gains from cheap Chinese consumer goods. During the first nine months of 2024, Russian and Chinese trade rose to 1.28 trillion yuan ($180.3 billion)—a 2.7 percent increase from 2023. The United States and the European Union retaliated with significant tariffs on Chinese products like electric vehicles and steel. Exclusion from global trade networks could intensify Chinese pushback against the current economic world order, further aligning China with Russia’s isolationist economic policies. Russia is actively moving away from its former Western trade agreements and international investment partners, replacing them with Chinese companies. China and Russia, among other countries, established the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2001, a group that opposes protectionist trade policies and unilateral sanctions of Western countries. This divide in global trade highlights an overall shift in Chinese and Russian economic dependencies as well as the increasing tension between this fledgling alliance and current Western frameworks.
The recent Russia-Ukraine war also highlighted the escalated tension between NATO and the China-Russia alliance. This autocratic partnership has spread rhetoric blaming the West for the war in Ukraine. China has continued its involvement in the war by defiantly supporting Russian interests, despite NATO’s request in July 2024 for China to cease economic support for Russia following the Ukraine invasion. As a result, Russia is growing a dependance on Chinese trade, as China has also been heavily contributing technology and machinery to Russian war efforts, which includes microelectronics as well as many long range attack drones for use in Ukraine. At this point, China has intertwined itself with Russian military operations in Ukraine. If Russia loses the war, China risks losing access to discounted Russian energy and less competitions for goods. China also gains Russian support for Chinese hegemonic ambitions. However, the largest dependency in the alliance is Russia’s dependence on Chinese support and resources. Without Chinese support, Russia would be at a major disadvantage in the Russia-Ukraine war.
The China-Russia partnership underscores a growing global divide within NATO, as the two countries create independent international organizations. Examples include the SCO and BRICS, which is an intergovernmental organization that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Targeting expansion to other countries from Africa and the Middle East, the organization appeals to regimes that don’t presently feel represented in global affairs and desire a shift away from the US as a global superpower. By supporting the Global South (countries considered as “developing” by the UN), Russia and China allow them to expand their influence in BRICS and draw them away from the UN and NATO. BRICS creates a “united front” with many overlooked countries by the US-led systems, competing with the direct intentions of the UN. As tensions in the Middle East rise, the autocratic partnership is able to take advantage and pull those countries away from the UN and NATO, making it difficult to maintain an internationally cooperative political forum.
The partnership’s implications for the US are worrisome. Manoj Kewalramani, chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Studies Program at the Takshashila Institution in India, stated that China and Russia “are trying to shift BRICS into some sort of anti-Western grouping, but not many countries in the Global South are on board with the idea.” They are constantly working towards developing a “multipolar world order” and challenging current US-led global systems. For example, China and Mongolia hosted President Putin on September 2nd, 2024 despite his warrant for arrest issued 2023 by the International Criminal Court (ICC). By greeting him with open arms, China went against their political duty to the ICC (International Criminal Court) and directly disrespected their authority. Additionally, Russia proposed a Chinese-endorsed BRICS payment system and new reserve currency would decrease economic dependency on the US, which fosters alternative supply chains and financial institutions that would insulate the two countries from US sanctions. BRICS itself already shows strong efforts to undermine American democracy and end the US global influence by immunizing authoritarian states to Western sanctions. The alliance additionally poses significant military and national security threats to the US. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov stated that military officials from Russian and Chinese held “substantive” talks to further foster collaboration between the two countries by running joint military drills. These exercises, in the words of Philipp Ivanov at the Asia Society, are trying to “demonstrate that they have sufficient military capabilities to deter the US” He added, “The exercises are also opportunities for China and Russia to test the limits of their military cooperation.” Without effective intervention, the US risks facing intensified anti-American rhetoric and challenges to liberal democratic values. Left unchecked, the autocratic alliance could pose the risk of a “New Cold War.”
