International Ramifications of the U.S. Presidential Election
By: Rohan Jayaraman
The U.S. presidential election is a global election. 244 million eligible voters have a decision on November 5th that will have a significant impact beyond the domestic sphere; their choice will influence the United States’foreign policy and diplomatic stances. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are aligned in their priority to preserve American prosperity amidst international threats to the domestic economy. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will have significant consequences on the U.S’. relationship between China and India, both of whom are key players in the global economy. Regardless of which candidate wins the election, the new president should prioritize fostering a strong relationship with India. They should focus on providing a conduit between the West and the Global South, allowing the U.S. to monitor growth amidst uncertainties about the nation’s future as the leading global superpower.
Within recent history, the U.S. has been regarded as having significant influence on world peace, paving international development through its established economic and military influence. The U.S. is the world’s leading global trader and the most important exporting relation for one-fifth of all countries. The U.S. dollar is the world reserve currency and the most widely used currency for international trade, facilitating 80% of financial transactions. Therefore, U.S. economic decisions that affect domestic growth have a significant impact on global affairs, making the presidential election and American relations a key issue for many countries. Recently, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) alliance has explored the possibility of creating a new reserve currency, prompted by aggressive U.S. foreign policies to create economic independence from the dollar. This escalation would strengthen economic integration within the Global South whilst diminishing the U.S.’ influence on the international stage. Therefore, it is imperative that the U.S. government understands the significance of the BRICS alliance and takes appropriate action to maintain American bargaining power to preserve domestic interests.
The emergence of the BRICS alliances challenges American influence abroad
Regarding the U.S. government’s approach to China, both the Republican and Democratic parties are aligned on their economic engagement through high tariffs on commodities designed to protect American companies. Yet, the upcoming election poses uncertainty on each candidate’s diplomatic engagement to preserve American interests. If elected, Trump plans to institute 60-100% tariffs on Chinese imports, essentially shutting the nation out of the American market by doubling the price of its goods. Furthermore, Harris has committed to maintaining her 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicle automakers like BYD, maintaining Trump administration taxes of $360 billion on Chinese goods. Both of these commitments are in an effort to preserve domestic manufacturers from the threat of Chinese commodities. Yet, Chinese economic growth has become less of a threat than it was since the last election. Since China opened its economy to the free market in 1978, its GDP has grown by 10% annually. However, in the past year, China’s economy grew by just 3%, which is the slowest annual growth since 1976. Furthermore, China needs to address the economic ramifications of a declining population for the first time since 1961. This population could pose problems for Xi Jinping’s proposal of economic revival in the context of a reduced workforce and older population to slow down the economic growth that Xi and the CCP have promised.
Diplomatically, it is very difficult to forecast how Trump and Harris would deal with escalating tensions between China and Taiwan. However, this dynamic is key in the context of the U.S.’ strategic relationship with India, which could prove an important ally in connecting the U.S. with growth in the Global South and BRICS. While Trump shares political alignment with Prime Minister Modi, and Biden has established ties with India through increased bilateral trade and strengthened security cooperation in the Quad Group (India, U.S., Japan, Australia) Harris has yet to prove significant investment in fostering a strong relationship with India. She has never visited India, and made comments that were deemed critical of India’s approach to the Jammu and Kashmir regions which were negatively received by the BJP (Modi’s Party). It is difficult to critique Trump’s leadership alignment with “India First” Modi to Harris, who has yet to develop an established foreign policy portfolio.
Although both candidates are focused on domestic reform and mitigating international conflicts, they should thrive in fostering a stronger strategic relationship with India through shared geopolitical rivalry with China and established trading grounds. However, it is imperative that the future president continues foreign investment in the fastest growing major economy, improving bilateral relations as a channel to communicate with the Global South. Furthermore, increased investment into Indian affairs ties India’s growth to the U.S., ensuring America is able to manage international development to maintain their status as the leading global superpower. As China continues to push its presence in southeastern Asia and Africa through the “Belt and Road Initiative,” it would serve the U.S. to have a strong alliance with India through shared goals to limit China’s influence. In addition, the partnership would allow the U.S. to monitor India’s increased sphere of influence including geo-politically unstable regions like Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
The emergence of the BRICS alliance will become a major economic and diplomatic priority for the future presidential elect, and maintaining a strong relationship with the Global South is essential in the U.S.’ preservation as the world’s leading global hub. While domestic affairs are a priority for both candidates, they should look to foster a more collaborative relationship with India to mitigate their distance to BRICS escalations, ultimately preserving American interests.
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