When does a man come before a party?
By: Gordon Miller
Following a series of losses in by-elections, the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) has to consider new leadership. The prime minister, Justin Trudeau, remains in power, passing a second confidence vote in early October; yet, the party’s coalition government has been on the verge of collapse for the last two election cycles. Polling is more dire still for the upcoming elections. Only 21% of potential voters said they would vote liberal in an election compared to the conservative party’s 42% in a June survey. So why are the liberals lagging so far behind and how can they recover?
As of the expected elections next October, the incumbent prime minister will have held the office for over ten years. Trudeau will be the fifth longest-reigning prime minister in Canadian history, two spots behind his father, Pierre Trudeau. His approval rating has been in the negatives since late 2020, and his record before then is inconsistent at best. Littering across his premiership are constant scandals ranging from bribery to blackface to alleged sexual assault. As a result of these stains across his tenure, 31% of undecided voters considering the liberal party said Trudeau was the biggest factor holding them back.
In the same poll, nearly half of the respondents said the LPC’s stagnation as a government was why they lost a vote. Altogether, more than 80% of respondents said major changes were needed within the party. The departure of Trudeau, then, acts as a promise of progress where before was a promise of stagnation.
http://angusreid.org/trudeau-tracker Approval ratings of Trudeau from 2014 through September
The LPC has two roads to follow. One, to trudge onwards through a fourth bid with Trudeau, hoping for the bare minimum response from the minority of citizens. The other, is to find a new candidate and move forward. Based solely on the polls, the first option promises a conservative ruling majority led by Pierre Poilievre. The MP has stated his support for the 2022 convoy protest, a ban on cannabis, and laws forcing trans kids to come out to their parents. The second one is far more uncertain. Choosing a new candidate entails the first major shift for the LPC platform since Trudeau’s appointment in 2015. But a major shift is what voters need right now.
In the last two Canadian elections, the LPC lost the popular vote to the conservatives. Voter turnout has trended consistently downwards ever since Trudeau took office, as more grow disillusioned with their government. Canada has been losing new political voices as the prime minister’s remains stagnate. In 2015, Trudeau promised sweeping voter reform, and in 2024, he only remains in power because he broke that promise. With dire poll numbers for the liberals, voters have hit a breaking point. No matter the result of the election, there will be change.
The prevailing apathy surrounding the Canadian election mirrors that of the American election mere months ago. Biden’s first debate had just aired, and alongside scathing media reception, the average voter was rapidly losing interest. But Biden dropped out. He recognized that his place was no longer in the White House and that his party was more important than his candidacy. After Harris assumed Biden’s candidacy, voters were imbued with a new sense of vigor. Trudeau is faced with disinterest from the average Canadian but refuses to respond.
Opening the LPC’s website, the first thing that jumps out is a page titled “Our Progress”. The party is built upon the promise of progress and change, yet they have let the same man rule for the past decade. To live up to their goal and to remain in power, their platform has to change. Liberals have two roads to take in Canada, and neither of them ends in a fourth Trudeau term.
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