Their strategy and why it was a failure
By: David Moon
In the early hours of August 6th this year, elite units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine breached minefields on the border with Russia and carried out a stunning invasion into Russia. Two and a half years after Russia’s initial incursion into Ukrainian territory, Ukraine made its first offensive on Russian soil. Though seemingly a military success, the operation was a strategic blunder and intelligence failure.
From an immediate military standpoint, the Armed Forces of Ukraine triumphed. The forces did indeed advance 18 miles into Kursk, capturing 93 settlements and over 460 square miles of Russian land—all in a relatively short time frame. As the first major win since the liberation of Kherson in late 2022, finally stepping foot into Russian territory has been a large morale booster for many Ukrainians. Furthermore, the offensive has broken Putin’s relentless Russian war machine. Even more, the offensive has thrown Russian military leadership into disarray with a new frontline to deal with. However, these gains are only superficial.
Such benefits are inconsequential in the larger scheme of the conflict. The amount of land Ukraine has captured is minimal; it is only 3.3% of Kursk’s total area and merely equivalent to 1.4% of the 33,500 square miles of land Russia holds in Ukraine. Additionally, to provide troops for the invasion and maintain its new land, Ukraine now must divert troops along with various logistical and support capabilities from other front lines, even as it faces manpower shortages fighting an enemy with more than triple its population and double its defense budget. In successfully executing the strike, Zelensky had to lighten the already stretched defenses in crucial battlegrounds like Pokrovsk, allowing Russian advances into those regions. Zelensky’s decision to green-light the incursion into Kursk likely caused tensions as several officials like General Valery Zaluzhny have urged against and protested such a move. These developments are even more significant with the recent cabinet toss-up, which shook up Ukrainian leadership.
Ukrainian APC operates near Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/opinion/this-is-the-beginning-of-a-big-russian-military-defeat-in-ukraine/
Additionally, the invasion marked a huge intelligence vulnerability for Ukraine. In fact, Russian military forces had apparently known about the impending raid multiple months prior, a dangerous intelligence breach for Ukraine. The operation would have been devastating if it had not been for the ineptitude of the Russian forces in coordination and combat. If Ukraine had been in conflict with virtually any other nation, such an effort would not have proved victorious and would have likely resulted in a humiliating defeat.
Though Ukraine finally set foot on Russian soil, it also made a critical mistake and nearly experienced failure. Therefore, if Ukraine wishes to endure the conflict and emerge victorious, it should commit to more deliberate and calculated actions.
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