Why in Spite of Low Popularity, Biden Will Win in 2024
By: Christian Bateman
Two years into his presidency, Joe Biden has successfully implemented an impressive list of domestic policy reforms, drawing historical comparisons to FDR’s drastic New Deal reforms. During his time as president, Biden has managed to effectively return the country to normalcy and ensure its future success by establishing effective policies to combat COVID-19, create more than twelve million jobs leading to the lowest unemployment rate in 53 years (3.4%), decrease healthcare costs by $800 annually for 13 million Americans, establish a strong commitment to clean energy through the Inflation Reduction Act in spite of heavy Republican opposition, and push a hugely successful bipartisan infrastructure bill through Congress. However, based on approval ratings, Biden is decidedly unpopular. Recent polling suggests that just 43.6% of Americans approve of Biden’s job in office thus far. In fact, Biden has had the second lowest rating in history across more than two years in office, just under one percentage point above Donald Trump’s 2019 rating. Yet, Biden’s approval ratings are the product of a unique set of circumstances and opposition; if Biden chooses to run in 2024, he will win.
Biden’s low approval rating is a reflection of polarized American politics and a frustrated Democratic left, but it holds little implication for the 2024 Presidential Election. The most comprehensive data available on Biden’s popularity was published by the Pew Research center in winter 2022. At the time, Biden’s overall approval rating was 41%. Analyzing the breakdown of the 2022 data offers insights into the causes of his lower-than-expected popularity. First, only 6% of Republicans approved of Biden’s job compared to 76% of Democrats, illustrating an ideological divide that has grown greater and greater since the 1990s and especially in the post-Trump era. However, Biden seemingly garnered far less support from his own party than Trump did a year into the job, falling 12 percentage points below Trump’s 90% approval rating in January 2018. Some left-leaning Democratic figures including Al Gore have been critical of Biden’s willingness to compromise with Republicans on climate policy, particularly as Biden failed to oversee the implementation of a carbon tax in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, a historic bipartisan piece of legislation. Other left-leaning Democrats have criticized Biden for failing to push an uncompromised leftist agenda and to make use of the “bully pulpit” to do so. Still, regardless of what the far-left may think, their alternatives in the 2024 election are likely to be far less appealing. At the moment, Former President Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appear to be early Republican frontrunners, though DeSantis is yet to officially announce his candidacy. If Biden runs again in 2024, left-leaning Democrats will have no choice but to back him. Yet, it is Biden’s appeal to swing voters that will ultimately win him the 2024 election.
Biden walks alongside Ukraine President Vladamir Zelensky in Kyiv.
First, while the right-wing media attempts to create a narrative of a weak president with little mental capacity, Biden has managed to mute this narrative in recent weeks. In his State of the Union speech, President Biden skillfully baited Republican lawmakers, condemning them for attempting to cut Social Security and Medicare funds. When met with boos, Biden keenly retorted, “Apparently it’s not going to be a problem.” Here, Biden proved capable of using the “bully pulpit” to accomplish an agenda intended to benefit working America, while coming across as witty and politically savvy, a winning combination.
Second, Biden has re-asserted the United States as a dominant global power, relentlessly supporting Ukraine through a program much like FDR’s “Lend-Lease Program” that provided France and England with military firepower prior to the United States’ entry into World War II. In late February, Biden also made a surprise appearance in Kyiv to demonstrate United States solidarity with Ukraine, even as air-raid sirens echoed through the city. Footage from demonstrations like these project a tough president, unphased by age, that will most certainly appeal to independent voters.
Above all, Biden has made huge efforts to revamp American industry, efforts that will appeal to blue-collar voters in key battleground states including Michigan and Pennsylvania. In fact, during Biden’s presidency, companies have reportedly invested over 300 billion dollars in American manufacturing, and the Chips and Science Act Biden penned last August will continue to encourage further investment in American industry. In this way, Biden has really put “America first,” just as Trump vowed, making it an American mission to compete with China in manufacturing. Politically, however, this move extends beyond the provision of millions of jobs by sending the message that Biden will be tough on China. In fact, according to economist Stephen Roach of Yale University, Biden has been “tougher” on China than his predecessor. If he continues to play his cards correctly, Biden will use policy changes to inspire the nationalist fervor he needs to win re-election in 2024.
