The Implications of his Newfound Power on China’s Future
By: Rohan Jayaraman
In October 2022, President Xi was re-elected to an unprecedented third term as the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and the premier of China. This broke the long tradition of Chinese leaders stepping down after ten years in power. Furthermore, Xi’s political allies were sworn into the very influential Seven Member Standing Committee of the party, further consolidating his power. After a deadly resurgence of COVID-19, which infected nearly 80% of the population, Xi and the CCP need to rebound back to economic growth. This Chinese new year is the year of the rabbit, which symbolizes hope and prosperity. In this third term, Xi will find new ways to utilize his newfound power, both domestically and internationally, to ensure that China eventually reaches its ultimate goal of becoming the world’s largest and most prosperous global superpower.
In a speech to his colleagues at the gathering of the new Central Committee, China’s major legislative body, Xi called for the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” Many observers believe Xi is driven by a more Marxist-Leninist ideology, which would take China back to its golden age of communism, where the CCP were the dominant political party under Mao. This message has been used by Xi before and entails increasing Chinese influence on the international stage. Xi has pledged self-sufficiency in China and a desire to project Chinese influence globally.
Xi being elected at the CCP Committee Meeting
The hallmark of Xi’s policy has been China’s Zero COVID initiative. This initiative forced citizens to stay inside almost constantly and has been met with retaliation from the general public. The aforementioned lockdown enforcements have led to food shortages in major cities like Shanghai and Xinjiang. Additionally, hundreds of millions of people were confined to their homes nationwide for months at a time. Since then, Xi was forced to retract his policy due to the economic damage and unpopularity among the Chinese people. This failure of the Zero COVID initiative and subsequent indecisiveness of Xi set his third term on the wrong foot, and he needs to make constructive steps in order to win back the approval of the Chinese people.
Going into 2023, China is facing many economic challenges. Since China opened its economy to the free market in 1978, its GDP has grown by 10% annually. However, in the past year, China’s economy grew by just 3%, which is the slowest annual growth since 1976, when the founder of Communist China Mao Zedong died. However, in the lead-up to Xi’s third term, the Chinese government cracked down on prominent business leaders to reign in what Xi viewed as an excess of capitalism. For example, Alibaba founder Jack Ma went missing after his skeptical comments on the direction of China’s economy in 2020. Although Ma made some appearances in 2022, the Alibaba stock lost $26 billion in market value. It is imperative that Xi will do anything to drive capitalist corporations out of China, which directly clashes with their promise of economic prosperity. The Politburo is hoping the recent economic slowdown is temporary, and that Xi can restore pre-pandemic-esque growth. Xi hopes that he can restore this growth while still maintaining a socialist agenda. However, this is nearly impossible because socialism and economic growth are inherent contradictions. Therefore Xi must pick a side to avoid the consequences of a stagnant economy.
Furthermore, Xi needs to deal with the ramifications of a declining population. According to the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, the population declined for the first time since 1961, the year of the great famine. This could pose problems in Xi’s proposal of economic revival, as a declining population could provide a reduced workforce and larger older population to slow down the economic growth that Xi and the CCP have promised.
On the international scene, it would be reasonable to say that Chinese relationships with the West have deteriorated during the Xi Jinping era. In the near term, Xi is facing criticism over China’s continued support of Russia through the purchase of Russian oil; Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia as China’s top crude supplier. In addition, Xi recently proclaimed that he would “resolutely carry out major struggles against separatism and interference.” Military activity has since ramped up around the border as Xi plans to “reunify” Taiwan with mainland China. This places Chinese policy on a collision course with America’s resilient support for Taiwan. There are evident parallels between Russian posture in the leadup to the Russia-Ukraine war and the Chinese stance toward Taiwan. Xi needs to balance the ideals of his own party with the ramifications of escalating tensions in Taiwan.
Chinese Planes Cross Taiwanese Waters
In the long term, Xi hopes to stamp Chinese influence on the global stage. In a recent speech, Xi pledged to actively engage in “major country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics.” This has been shown previously through the “Belt and Road Initiative” and China’s role in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Samarkand Summit. U.S. and Chinese recently clashed in the international setting following Biden’s visit to Saudi in June of 2022, Xi visited Saudi in December of 2022 to cement ties with the oil-rich kingdom. This is a prime example of China exerting its influence on a previous American ally.
As China deals with domestic and international challenges, the people that Xi’s loyalists have displaced are observing closely for any missteps. A lot rides on Xi’s ability to deliver on his promises.
