The Invisible Hands Which Could Impact the 2024 Elections
By: Tia Reddy
With the 2024 elections looming, many Americans fear a more polarized America governed by aging presidents who don’t accurately represent the people’s values. A 2024 rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump would be an election between the least popular US presidents ever. The wish for a third party in the general elections has reached an apex in America. 38% of Americans describe themselves as independents, and two-thirds of Americans wish for a third party but are unsure what the party should be and what values it should represent. Along with the Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, Green Party, and Constitution Party nominees, former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY.), Sen. Joe Manchin, (D-WV.), former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), Cornel West, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are seeking to run for the U.S presidency. The problem is, as historian Richard Hofstadter wrote in 1955, “Third parties are like bees, Once they have stung, they die.” While third parties currently have their biggest moment in history, none of them will win the presidency. However, the third party or parties with the highest sway in the swing states will determine who wins the 2024 elections; the question remains, who?
From the voter’s standpoint, many people may not identify with what the two main political parties represent and instead seek alternative options. However, the way the electoral vote is set up in the US, it is nearly impossible for a third party to pull through nationally in a general election. If the US were to have a non-electoral vote-based system such as a parliamentary system, like the UK or India, there would be six distinct parties — a progressive Sanders or AOC party, a center-left Biden party, a business-oriented Bloomberg party, a traditional-conservative Pence party, a conservative populist Trump Party, and a Green party; the Third-party candidates fall along these platforms. The most successful third-party nominee was Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 election, who came second in a U.S. election when he had a 27.5% nationwide vote. The only way for third-party candidates to have any real leverage in a general election might be ranked-choice voting or “instant run-off” voting as used in Maine— although it has been met with much pushback, including a veto referendum petition, so passing it in all states will not be an easy feat.
From a third-party candidate’s viewpoint, there are many possible reasons to try out for a national election while knowing the odds of winning are low. It could be to get attention to and a response on an issue ignored by the mainstream politicians, or to run on a spoiler ticket. A good example of the latter would be if Liz Cheney jumps into the fray after Donald Trump’s nomination.
While both voters and politicians present an opportunity for a third-party candidate, one will almost certainly not win the White House. But they may determine the fate of the presidency. Ralph Nader, the Green Party nominee in 2000 who got 2.7% of the national votes, may have tipped the 2020 election away from Al Gore by redirecting some of the 97,488 votes in Florida. George W. Bush won Florida and the U.S. election by a narrow 543 vote margin. In this election, seven states were won by less than three points. Third-party candidates in 2024 have ballot access in several battleground states— including Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. If a third-party candidate has ample funds to manage a strong campaign in these states and thus keeps the voters from giving into the guilt of “vote wasting” on voting day, it could have a big impact on Biden or Trump. The third-party candidacies of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West could have a significant impact on the 2024 presidential election. By aligning with the Libertarian and the Green parties, which have a national presence, Robert F Kennedy and Cornel West have made serious gains by boosting ballot access and their voter base. As of now, it is unclear if there will be a No Labels candidate or if Liz Cheney will join. Cornel West will likely draw votes from Biden, Robert F Kennedy, Liz Cheney from Trump and a No Labels candidate draw from both Trump and Biden. With a less than three-point margin in swing states in 2020 and the public’s increased aversion to two-party presidential choices, the third-party presidential hopefuls will make their presence felt. This November, more voters than ever will be directing their attention to the agendas of the non-major parties. The Third Party candidate who will decide this election will be the one who captures the voters’ attention the most till the very end in the battleground states.
As polarization digs deeper, where do third parties stand in 2024 elections?
