Early States Mean Nothing Anymore
By: Bradford Kimball
The Iowa Caucus saved Jimmy Carter’s campaign in 1976. The New Hampshire primary saved Bill Clinton’s campaign in 1992. These small states, with respective populations of 3.1 million in Iowa and 1.389 million in New Hampshire, have allowed less well-known candidates to shine and gain momentum in the presidential primaries. However, the results of the 2024 Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary demonstrate that the importance of these early contests has diminished; the increasing nationalization of party politics and the rise of social media means that-profile candidates can no longer rely on these states to rally support and salvage their campaigns.
Amassing 51% of the vote in Iowa (30% more than Ron DeSantis, who finished second) and 54.3% of the vote in New Hampshire, Donald Trump captured large wins in both contests, despite limited campaigning efforts. Since January 23, Trump has held twenty-five events in Iowa; DeSantis has held one hundred and thirty-six, and Nikki Haley has held seventy-five.. DeSantis has held events in each of Iowa’s ninety-nine counties. In such a small state, that legwork usually pays off, especially for lower-profile candidates. In today’s political environment, however, these efforts have proven futile. The rise of social media and the dominance of Trump over the Republican Party has made it impossible for lower-profile candidates to win in Iowa and New Hampshire by out-working their opponents. For example, the share of Americans who consume local news has fallen from 70% to under 50% from 1990 to 2020, signaling that people are not as interested in local issues anymore. They are concerned with national issues.
On the Democratic side in New Hampshire, a similar story played out. Joe Biden garnered 63.9% of the vote as a write-in candidate. As a write-in candidate! The Democratic National Committee (DNC) had not officially sanctioned the New Hampshire Primary, and Biden did not campaign. His challengers, Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, each held sixty and two-hundred events in the state, respectively. In spite of their campaigning efforts, Biden won handily. The nationalization of politics means that small candidates can not gain traction in Iowa and New Hampshire like they used to. The days of a second-place finish in Iowa reviving Jimmy Carter’s campaign are over. In effect, the primaries are a done deal before they even start.
That being said, not all hope is lost for the importance of early-voting states. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) voted to make South Carolina the first “official” primary in the Democratic Presidential Primary. Given South Carolina is a larger and more diverse state than both Iowa and New Hampshire, this change may allow different candidates to succeed in South Carolina, boosting their momentum for future primary contests. It remains to be seen whether this change will revive the importance of early-voting states.
Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill once wrote that “all politics is local.” In the age of social media, this statement is not true anymore. There is no more local politics in Iowa and New Hampshire; indeed, all politics is national.
