But the election of the DPP may not bode well for Sino-American relations
By: David Xiong
As much of our current attention focuses on Sino-American tensions over the issue of Taiwan’s sovereignty, Taiwan had an event of its own. In what the island saw as a watershed moment for their democracy, its people chose the progressive candidate Lai Ching-te as their president on January 13, 2024, with a plurality of the vote. Lai, formerly a popular mayor in the southern city of Tainan, promises a more aggressive stance against China, steadfastly advocating for Taiwanese independence. His policies largely mirror those of the outgoing President Tsai Hai-Wen. He believes that Taiwan is already independent from China, so there is no more need for a formal declaration of independence. Lai beat out his next closest opponent, Hou You-Ih of the more moderate Kuomintang party, who advocated for a negotiation strategy with China. The third-place candidate, Ko Wen-Je, who campaigned on a platform for economic reform, received just over a quarter of the vote. Of course, the people of Taiwan are entitled to make their own decisions when it comes to their elected leaders, but the voters are naive to believe that Lai will do what is in the best interest of the Taiwanese people. Ultimately, this leadership change will exacerbate Sino-American tensions and may actually endanger the well-being of the Taiwanese people.
China and Taiwan have long had a fraught relationship. After the Chinese Civil War between Kuomintang and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the CCP emerged victorious. The remaining members of the Kuomintang party went into exile in Taiwan, where they established their own governmental system on the island. Since then, the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty has long been a complicated one. Taiwan claims its territory as its own, but China rejects these claims and points to the United Nation’s refusal to officially recognize Taiwan as an independent country. These sentiments have only been compounded by Lai in Taiwan and China’s President Xi Jinping. China has consistently warned of retaliatory threats should Taiwan continue to go down a path to independence after these elections. In China’s own words, the country called these recent elections “a choice between peace and war.” While PBS News explains that Lai is unlikely to formally declare independence, his policies tending more towards de facto independence will likely continue to provoke tensions. China has warned that it will follow through with military actions should Lai take Taiwan in this direction.
Moreover, the threats and increasing violence on the Taiwanese Strait are not anything new. In the past, China’s threats have consistently translated into action. Just last December, China and the US sparred over a US naval ship conducting operations in the South China Sea. The South China Sea is an area that has long been under contention by Taiwan, China, the Philippines, and many other countries. Furthermore, there is no established acceptance of what constitutes the “status quo” situation in Taiwan (even with divisions within the island). Because of this lack of clarity over policy, China can take advantage of this nebulous situation to cry foul over what it will call actions that “counter” the stability of the region.
The major objection cited by American foreign policy analysts when pushing back against such a Chinese narrative is the risks associated with military action. These analysts argue that China is unlikely to pursue direct military action against Taiwan because of the immense level of risk involved. As Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the John L. Thornton China Center and contributor to the Brookings Institute, concludes, “Xi does not need to gain control of Taiwan in the near term, he just cannot afford to permanently “lose” Taiwan on his watch. He needs to continue to be able to call unification with Taiwan a “historic inevitability,” just like every People’s Republic of China leader before him.” However, Xi Jinping is most certainly different in the sense that he has acted much more aggressively than other Chinese leaders on Taiwan. Xi has made it a promise all along before his ascent to the presidency to officially reunify Taiwan with China, calling such a situation an “inevitability” just in December of last year. This sense of insecurity over the Taiwan issue that Xi had so confidently promised to China increases the likelihood that he will do anything to take aggressive action to even combat any tendencies that Lai displays towards furthering Taiwanese independence.
A war with China would pose a significant threat to the security of Taiwan, based on several indicators of a lack of readiness. These indicators include a lack of sufficient support for an increased military budget and skepticism over the US’s commitment to Taiwan’s security. As part of his promises to help strengthen the Taiwanese people, President Tai proposes increasing the defense budget in preparation for such a conflict scenario. Indeed, going into a war with China will require significantly hiking funding for the military. However, polling data shows that public opinion in Taiwan is not in favor of such a move. In a survey conducted in summer 2023, 44.6% of respondents said that Taiwan’s defense budget was already just right, while 35.48% of respondents said that it was too much. This figure, combined with an overwhelming skepticism of America’s commitment to helping with Taiwanese defense, displays the alarming danger China’s military would pose to the island. Therefore, a central question remains: how truly committed is the Taiwanese public to direct military engagement with China? Will the Taiwanese people be prepared to take up arms to defend themselves?
Of course, the Taiwanese people have every right to exercise their autonomy in decision-making when it comes to their elected leaders. And this January, they displayed just that, voting in a free and fair election without much intimidation, irregularities, or external interference. However, what appears to be a moment of hope for Taiwanese independence poses larger long-term consequences that those living in Taiwan must not ignore, as the recent election results may ultimately backfire.
President Lai Ching-te delivers his victory speech. (Image credit: Associated Press)
