Graham Bateman
//China’s Power is Vastly Overestimated//
On December 17, 2021, Chinese property giant Evergrande formally entered default. While the future of Evergrande remains uncertain, the Evergrande crisis represents a rare, widely publicized failure of a major Chinese institution. Since 1978, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged approximately ten percent. More than eight hundred million of its citizens have left poverty, and China has joined the United States as a major economic superpower. However, amidst this intense economic growth, China’s hampering domestic and economic problems have faced minimal scrutiny. This is exactly the messaging that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants. Rhetoric asserting America’s decline and China’s rise has reverberated in the Senate Chamber, at major financial conferences, and at dinner tables across the United States. Nevertheless, China must confront a plethora of domestic and economic challenges as it moves to a place of global prominence. As a result, the United States will likely remain the world’s leading superpower.
Contrary to popular belief, China’s economy lacks the necessary productivity and worker base to support its long-term success. During its rise, China’s industrial sector grew rapidly, partially due to a surplus of rural workers. However, China must now grapple with an aging population and lower birth rates. This portends an erosion of China’s currently massive workforce in the coming decades. To maintain similar economic output levels, China can either promote immigration or support worker productivity. It has failed to do both. In 2015, less than 0.1% of residents in China hailed from foreign countries, a number that hovers around 15% in countries like the U.S. and Germany A mass exodus of workers into China remains unlikely. China is equally unlikely to enhance productivity. Between 1995 and 2013, China’s productivity grew by a substantial 15.5%. However, between 2014 and 2018, China’s productivity growth averaged just 5.7%. Furthermore, China relies heavily on goods and services in the United States to support its manufacturing. For every dollar spent on an item “Made in China,” fifty-five cents of value come from goods and services produced in the United States. As China’s population decreases and productivity plateaus in the coming decade, an economic reversal will follow.
China also lacks adequate investment in human capital and innovation. The Center for World University Rankings (CWUR) ranks China’s most prestigious academic institution, Peking University, as fifty-ninth globally. China’s academic institutions have struggled to form academic partnerships abroad, while research remains strictly monitored and in some cases suppressed. The Global Public Policy Institute (GPPI) ranks China’s academic freedom behind that of Iran and Cuba. Additionally, China struggles to retain highly skilled workers. Tens of thousands of top Chinese engineers, scientists, and entrepreneurs immigrate to the United States each year. To effectively support its workforce, China must enhance academic freedom and its quality of education and retain skilled workers.
China’s military also pales by comparison to the United States military. The United States exercises a global military influence, boasting 800 military bases in over 70 countries. China only recently began establishing foreign military bases. China’s military does dwarf the United States in size, boasting over 2.8 million personnel (nearly 50% more troops than the United States), but suffers from endemic corruption, poor coordination, poor training, and inexperience in live combat situations. While China consistently flaunts its military strength in Southeast Asia, its military power remains largely regional. The United States, spending over five hundred billion dollars more on the military, continues to benefit from an organized, coordinated command and well-maintained high technology equipment.
Ultimately, China lacks the economic, innovative, and military prowess of the United States. Time will tell whether China will follow a similar growth trajectory as Japan and fade into the background or whether the nation will remain in a place of global prominence. One thing is clear: China’s power will not eclipse that of the United States anytime soon.
China’s military eclipses that of the United States in size, but it lacks combat experience and well-maintained, high-quality technology.