Elliot Johnson
//Protests, Martial Law, and Political Crackdowns Shut Down Central Asia’s Largest Economy//
Streets across Kazakhstan exploded in anger on January 2nd over a sudden increase in the price of gasoline. Numerous protests started as peaceful demonstrations in the gas-producing city of Zhanaozen but quickly devolved into violence across the country. When the dust settled on January 11th, 208 protesters and 19 police officers lay dead. Many hundreds more had sustained injuries, and thousands were arrested. The protests only ended when the authoritarian government of Kazakhstan allowed Russian troops to enter their country and essentially occupy all areas of major importance, giving Kazakh and Russian government troops the option to “fire without warning.” Ultimately, the protesters triumphed, and President Tokayev’s government reinstated a price cap on gasoline, although not without a serious loss of life. Despite Tokayev increasing his power amidst the chaos, the Kazakh people succeeded in their goal of restoring a price cap and have proven that they still have a say in how they are governed.
The protests kicked off when the price of gas rose to one that was outrageous for the average Kazakh, the final straw for citizens who had experienced falsified elections, increasing income inequality, and tensions between Kazakh and Russian language speakers, all in the last five years. The government cooperates with their oligarchs, who rarely pay taxes and control vast amounts of the Kazakh gas industry. Kazakhstan has the largest economy in Central Asia, driven largely by its national gas reserves and its possession of 40% of the world’s uranium reserves. All of these factors should theoretically mean that Kazakhs have a high quality of life compared to their neighboring countries. Unfortunately, this is not true, and Kazakhstan has faced growing income inequality driven by government corruption. Two of the five Kazakh billionaires are close family members of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who held onto power from independence in 1991 until 2019 through a series of highly rigged elections. But in a country where the average salary is just 580 dollars a month, the government officials having so much more money has clearly been a sore point for the people. The government has historically rewarded their supporters with shares in the natural gas industry, and punishes their opponents with beatings or jail time.
Protests similar to the ones ongoing forced Nazarbayev from power in 2019, and his successor, Kassym Tokayev, called a snap election which was widely considered to be rigged. Tokayev’s government has ruled in much the same way as Nazarbayev’s, and for the past two years, protests against his government have been common. However, after the January protests, Tokayev sacked his cabinet, which was full of corrupt government officials. Even though Tokayev retained power, this is a step in the right direction for Kazakhstan. Although his concessions were more likely because he was afraid of losing power, the Kazakh people have made it clear they are willing and able to bring change to their government, whether Tokayev works with them or not. Tokayev also conceded to restoring the previous price caps, making gas somewhat affordable once more. Tokayev himself said, “During this period, the regulatory framework should be carefully prepared, the transparent operation of trading platforms should be ensured, and mechanisms to limit the sharp rise in prices should be introduced.” As for the Russian and their allies’ troops, a full withdrawal began on January 13th, and by January 19th, all Russian military forces had left Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan still has a long way to go before it can be considered an actual democracy, but the protesters made it very clear what they wanted, and Tokayev conceding to a price cap demonstrates that against all odds, the protesters won.
Kazakhstan still has progress to make on corruption, however, as Tokayev has removed multiple supporters of former President Nazarbayev from office and criticized the former president and his family for their exorbitant lifestyle. The martial law imposed on Kazakhstan and the shoot to kill order resulted in hundreds dead, and Tokayev may use the opportunity to become a new dictator of Kazakhstan for many more decades as he is no longer living in the shadow of Nazarbayev. So more action will need to be taken by the Kazakh people in the future if they want more concessions from Tokayev.
Still, at the end of the day, the protests succeeded in their original goal of restoring the price cap on gasoline, and the Kazakh people have made it clear that their voice can be heard once more, bringing hope that Kazakhstan may become an actual democracy soon. The world should keep its eye on Kazakhstan, as these protests are just the latest in a series that has resulted in the Kazakh citizens triumphing over their government in the short run. One can only hope that they continue to pressure Tokayev for more personal and economic freedoms in the future.
Protesters in Kazakhstan’s Capital, Nur-Sultan in January
President Tokayev with Vladimir Putin of Russia