Bradford Kimball
// California’s Rebuke of Recall Reveals Republicans Haunted by Trump //
Trumpism is killing the Republican party’s electoral chances. California Governor Gavin Newsom’s victory in a recall attempt proves that Democrats do not have to worry when facing a Republican party still controlled by the specter of former president Donald Trump. With 62% of Californians who voted on September 15 electing to keep Newsom as their governor, he handily defeated the Republican forces hoping to recall him over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Democrats will continue to defeat Republican candidates as long as the Republican Party is controlled by Donald Trump.
Newsom faced a recall over allegations of elitism and incompetence that reverberated across the state. In November 2020, Newsom was caught eating with 22 maskless people at the French Laundry, a three-Michelin-starred restaurant, violating California’s public health restrictions, catalyzing the recall effort by serving as a symbol of Newsom’s elitism and hypocrisy. California Republicans also took issue with Newsom’s failure to address fraud in the unemployment system, high taxes, wildfires, and the housing crisis.While California is a deep blue state, Newsom’s approval had sunk as a result of these issues. Armed with an extensive list of conservative complaints, petitioners easily collected 1.5 million signatures in 160 days to kick off the recall process.
The recall effort was a Trumpian one. In addition to the recall question, the California recall ballot included a second question: “If the governor is recalled, who do you want to replace him?” On Question 2, Larry Elder, a conservative radio show host, won 48.5% of the vote, with 46 candidates from across the political spectrum. Elder once said that Trump’s election in 2016 “was divine intervention.” Because Newsom pushed his supporters to leave Question Two blank and not choose any alternative, those who voted to recall him overwhelmingly cast their ballots for Elder, the Trumpian choice. Trump’s influence still holds an iron grip over those Question Two voters. Newsom’s defeat of Elder represents a Democratic victory over Trump.
Newsom’s campaign strategy propelled him to victory. He strategically positioned himself alongside President Joe Biden, winning Biden’s support. Biden told a crowd in California, “you either keep Gavin Newsom as your governor or you’ll get Donald Trump,” proof that Democrats believe it is politically favorable to paint their opponents as Trumpists. Before Newsom instituted his strategy of positioning himself against Trump, the campaign was a tossup; 538’s poll aggregate showed that keeping Newsom was only favored by 0.2% in early August. In a state that voted for Biden by nearly 30 points, 0.2% is a miniscule lead. With only an 0.2% lead, some Democrats were tired of Newsom and his policies. However, in the following weeks, Newsom scheduled appearances with Biden Harris, and his lead in the poll aggregate expanded to 15.8% by September 13. The anti-Trump messsaging that worked for Democrats in 2018 still worked for them in 2021. Though in California, Newsom’s apparatus convinced and turned out voters over the course of August and September. Newsom’s ability to sway voters by associating Elder with Trump bodes well for Democrats in future elections.
If Newsom was able to hold onto the governorship while using anti-Trump messaging, other Democrats are well-positioned to rebuke Trumpism in future elections. Even though Newsom was on the precipice of being recalled in a blue state like California, his strategy worked for him. Newsom’s strategy demonstrates that Republican candidates’ ties to Trump can hurt them electorally. Through the recall election, Democrats have learned that while Trump’s ubiquity in American politics still bodes for them. While the California Governor’s mansion remains undisturbed, Democrats know that while Trump controls the Republicans, Democrats can win elections.
Biden greeting Newsom at a campaign stop before the election in California