Rohan Jayamaran
// A glimpse into the future //
The United Kingdom, the world’s fifth largest economy, has recently been threatened by a petrol shortage. By late September, as many as 90% of the petrol stations across the country reported that they had run out of fuel. While many officials and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson predict that the problem is ‘stabilizing,’ the price of gas is beginning to fall as fuel is being shipped into the UK. This is just the beginning of a larger economic crisis that the UK may face. In the past five years, the UK has watched three different prime ministers try to reach a deal with the EU over Brexit, while dealing with a rough pandemic and vaccine rollout. Petrol prices are at an eight year high of £1.35/litre (or about $6.90/gallon, which is more than double the price of fuel in Boston). Many stations have been forced to issue a £30 cap on any single purchase. The situation has become so serious that the army had to get involved, by delivering petrol tanks to key stations around the country Boris Johnson has had to reluctantly give 5,000 more UK visas to truck drivers in order to combat this problem. This crisis could have major repercussions for the UK economy and could foreshadow a larger problem regarding the failure of Britain’s supply chains, immigration problems, and incompetency with Brexit.
The shortage was initially triggered by BP’s decision to temporarily close a handful of its petrol stations due to a lack of truck drivers. Fears of further shortages led to widespread panic buying, causing large queues outside many petrol stations. The lack of truck drivers has presented a major issue to the UK, with a shortage of as many as 100,000 drivers impacting the delivery of goods to supermarkets and also other services such as food delivery. With many truck drivers retiring during the pandemic, the shortage has been exacerbated. Additionally, drivers are finding it increasingly difficult to work as they need access to frequent COVID tests, even with two doses of the vaccine. Drivers also need a special licence on top of their truck qualifications to transport chemicals like petrol
While this driver shortage may have numerous causes, the UK’s exit from the European Union directly contributed to this ongoing situation. Since Brexit, the UK government has made it increasingly difficult for workers to obtain visas and UK citizenship. Accordingly, immigrants from the EU who previously lived in the UK are beginning to return to their home countries. Immigrants now have to pass a points requirement (meeting criteria such as speaking English and having a sustainable wage allow applicants to earn points) to be allowed to live in the UK, which is a deterrent to many foreigners looking for work. Roughly 200,000 EU citizens left the UK due to Brexit, with an additional 1.3 million leaving between July 2019 and September 2020, 20,000 of whom were truck drivers. This has led directly to a shortage of workers inclined to move back to the UK when they can seek jobs elsewhere in Europe. Brexit has deterred immigrants from working in the UK, either because they cannot enter the country, or they are not attracted to these subpar working conditions.
The COVID-19 pandemic has also contributed to the driver shortage, as many seasonal workers were unable to enter the UK during the pandemic due to its strict border rules. Many foreign workers have also not wanted to return given the continued surge of COVID cases in the UK. Some EU countries have also made it more attractive for workers to remain in the EU rather than remain on low wages in the UK. For example, the Netherlands has increased pay and improved working conditions for truck drivers, with an easier entry for many EU nationals. Last year, according to the Road Haulers Association, the UK transport industry body, only 15,000 people completed training to become a truck driver in the UK, which is 25,000 fewer than in the previous year. Britain no longer appears to be an attractive workplace for immigrants as they seek higher pay elsewhere.
While this petrol crisis may be under control in the coming weeks, it is only a sample of a larger problem facing the UK in the post-pandemic and post-Brexit era. Similar worker shortages plague other critical industries including healthcare and farming, which has led to the UK government warning its citizens to prepare for Christmas shortages. The cost of energy and fuel has already driven inflation in the UK to an all time high since 1997. According to the New York Times, as many as three million British households are living in food and fuel poverty. Although many see this as a passing problem, COVID-19 and Brexit will become larger problems in the near future and may have major repercussions on the UK’s economy and society in general.
The gravity of this specific crisis is minor, but it still has the potential to affect the UK in even more drastic ways. COVID-19 and Brexit have shown they can heavily affect the UK’s economy and political landscape. These causes will become increasingly more difficult to combat if not dealt with now. The petrol crisis is only a small problem, but it should act as a warning for the UK government. Boris Johnson, who campaigned for Brexit and promised a brighter future in the post-Brexit era, will face a political crisis if he does not deliver on his campaign promises. However, it will not be him, but his constituents who will be suffering for a much longer period beyond this winter.
