Graham Bateman
// The long-lasting implications of Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan //
No 21st-century American military exercise has cost more American lives, taxpayer dollars, and civilian deaths than the United States’ military intervention in Afghanistan. Forbes estimates that between 2001 and 2021 the total cost of the United States’ support for Afghanistan amounted to over two trillion dollars, 20,000 American troop fatalities, 4,000 U.S. contractor fatalities, and 100,000 Afghan military and civilian deaths. Despite the U.S.’ investment in the region, President Biden — continuing former President Trump’s plan — ordered the complete withdrawal of American troops. With a decreased U.S. troop presence, an invigorated army of Taliban fighters poured into Afghanistan’s provincial capitals and, after just two weeks of fighting, seized control of Kabul. Ultimately, Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan represents a severe miscalculation that will bear immense implications for both U.S. strategic interests and the Afghan people.
Like many Democrats and Republicans, Biden came to view the war in Afghanistan as a futile enterprise. Just days before Kabul’s fall, President Biden asserted that “Afghan leaders must come together” and “fight for their nation.” As the U.S. efforts in Afghanistan faced significant setbacks, namely corruption and armed resistance, Biden considered two choices: he could continue the war in Afghanistan, or he could withdraw completely. He chose the latter. New reports suggest that General Mark Milley and General Frank McKenzie advised President Biden to indefinitely keep a force of 2,500 troops in Afghanistan to deter Taliban forces. Biden’s decision to ignore his generals and withdraw completely represents a fatal miscalculation. Prior to the Taliban’s seizure of Kabul, no U.S. serviceman had died in combat since February 2020. Had Biden deployed the troops he was advised to, he could have benefited the Afghan government with little cost to the US., yet he refused even this. Intelligence reports predicted the fall of Kabul, but Afghanistan simply no longer held strategic importance for the administration. Biden willingly left Afghanistan to the mercy of the Taliban.
By withdrawing from Afghanistan, Biden severely miscalculated Afghanistan’s importance in counteracting terrorist threats. Biden has asserted that counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan succeeded, but his generals think otherwise. Currently, the Taliban, ISIS-K (an off-shoot of ISIS), and Al-Qaeda exercise a significant influence over the region. During a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, General Milley conceded that Al-Qaeda remains closely tied with the Taliban and that a resurgence of the Islamic State remains a “very real possibility.”
Furthermore, Afghanistan provides the ideal conditions for the development of terrorist groups. The mountainous terrain provides perfect cover for training operations. It also borders Pakistan, one of the world’s most active funders of terrorism. And, Afghanistan’s opium trade continues to flourish. Afghan farmers cultivate poppies on an estimated 224,000 hectares of land, making Afghanistan the world’s largest supplier of heroin and bringing in between 1.5 and 3 billion dollars in revenue. The Taliban and other affiliated or non-affiliated terrorist organizations will no doubt make use of the heroin market to fund their groups. With a decreased troop presence, combatting the financial and operational development of terrorist groups will be nearly impossible. Following the withdrawal of the Soviet Union, Afghanistan, the country became a cesspool of terrorism, corruption, and human rights violations. While the current situation in Afghanistan may seem better, there exists little evidence that the Taliban will not revert to its pre-war ways. If history offers any indication, Afghanistan has not seen the worst impacts of America’s withdrawal.
However, Afghanistan does not just represent a potential safe haven for terrorists. The nation also shares a 47-mile long border with China. The Taliban takeover has placed China in a precarious and opportunistic position. A small stipend of U.S. troops would likely have displaced Chinese influence in the region. Now that the government of Ashraf Ghani, former President of Afghanistan, has fallen, China may seek to partner with the Taliban to combat ISIS-K or any terrorist groups it believes could threaten its control of Xinjiang, a predominantly Muslim Chinese province. China’s support of the Taliban would promote stability in the country, but it would also come at the expense of human rights. It would render the U.S. powerless in applying economic pressure on the Taliban to respect human rights.
Ultimately, while Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan served few strategic U.S. interests, it also effectively jeopardized the lives of millions of Afghans. The United Nations (U.N.) has reported a surge in human rights violations following the Taliban takeover. While the Taliban has taken measures to portray itself as a reformed organization, reports have surfaced of widespread abuses. In July, the Taliban graphically tortured and killed 13 ethnic Hazara men. Now fully in control of the country, the Taliban has prevented women from returning to school or work. These reports likely just scratch the surface of the Taliban’s abuse. To control the international news narrative, the Taliban has cut mobile phone service in many areas while severely restricting media access. Whether the Taliban plans to scale down its abuse to gain international legitimacy remains questionable. Such a change may be at odds with its increasingly extremist, younger factions. Nevertheless, Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan has placed the rights of 40 million Afghans at risk.
Biden’s decision to withdraw undermines U.S.’ objectives and comes at a significant human cost. His decision will stand as a significant blemish on his presidency and represents one of the most costly U.S. foreign policy errors of the decade. Moving forward, the U.S. will need to take an active stance against the Taliban and other extremist groups in the region. American officials must continue sanctions on the Taliban regime until it demonstrates respect for human rights. At the same time, U.S. intelligence must also develop a strategic partnership with the Taliban, and possibly China, to counteract more concerning terrorist threats in the region. The road forward will no doubt be difficult and riddled with crises and human suffering. However, careful navigation of the chaos to come can dampen the effect of Biden’s fatal error.
