By: Saanika Raina
Choosing Between War and the Iran Nuclear Deal
The 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), or the Iran Nuclear Deal, must be renegotiated and reimplemented expeditiously, as it is the only way that the world can compel Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions without conflict.
The JCPOA was struck in 2015, when the U.S., France, the United Kingdom, China, Russia, (the five permanent members of the UN security council), and Germany, along with the European Union (EU), lifted economic sanctions on Iran and gave the country access to billions of dollars worth of frozen assets to revive its weak economy. In return, Iran reduced its uranium stockpiles and decommissioned thousands of centrifuges, thereby reducing its capacity to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels. The country also allowed inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor its facilities. Though many of the restrictions are set to phase out in 2026, some inspection measures will remain until 2030.
The Trump Administration’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 allowed Iran to speed up its nuclear program, as it no longer had to worry about jeopardizing trade relations with the West. The EU and the UK did not back out of the nuclear deal, but large global companies did not want to lose access to the US market so they complied with US sanctions. Swift, the largest international financial system that facilitates cross border transactions, succumbed to US pressure to ban Iranian banks from its system, which undermined the EU’s ability to trade with Iran.
The victims of the sanctions have primarily been the Iranian middle class, which has demonstrated a strong desire to join the rest of the global economy. The Iranian middle class strongly supported the Iran Nuclear Deal and elected President Rouhani in 2013, as he promised to end sanctions and improve relationships with the West. In Iran, the ultimate power rests with the Supreme Leader who is elected by the key clerics, and even the President needs his ultimate approval for any significant policy decision. Rouhani received endorsement on the deal from the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. After signing the JCPOA in 2015, Rouhani won reelection in 2017 by a landslide. In Northern Tehran, his share of votes increased from 49% in 2013 to 79% in 2017, an indication of his popularity with middle-class voters and their hopes for a better economic future. After the implementation of the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2015, Iranian GDP grew by 12.3% in 2016 and then by 4% in 2017. Upon the reinstatement of US sanctions, GDP declined by 7% in 2018 and 2019. Unemployment hit 14.5% in 2018 and 16.8% in 2019. The burden of the sanctions has fallen on middle-class Iranians and undermined the efforts of moderate Iranians’ ability to push back against Iranian hardliners. A poll taken earlier this year reflects the economic pessimism of Iranian citizens. One in three held a favorable view of President Rouhani, while three in four held a favorable view of Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline candidate whom President Rouhani won handily against in 2017. In order to sustain the moderate currents in the Iranian electorate and prevent a hard line conservative President from assuming power, the US needs to move swiftly to reimplement the Iran Nuclear Deal.
The Trump administration’s decision to pull the United States out from the JCPOA and impose sanctions allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium, the key ingredient in nuclear weapons. Under the JCPOA, Iran could enrich uranium for civilian nuclear reactors to just 3.67% purity, but since the US abandoned the JCPOA, Iran has added centrifuges and raised uranium purity to 20%, ten years ahead of schedule. As of February 2021, Iran has started to develop 60%-enriched uranium. Their goal is to reach weapons-grade uranium, at 90% purity. Iran has also procured almost 3000 kilograms of uranium, which is fourteen times the quantity they would have been allowed under the JCPOA. This amount of uranium could power three atomic bombs if refined to weapons-grade quality. Clearly, sanctions have propelled rather than deterred Iran’s mission to become a nuclear power.
The only other way to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions besides reimplementing the Iran Nuclear Deal would involve military action. Israel has attempted to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program through cyber attacks, assassinating Iran’s top nuclear scientist, and striking various missile facilities in Iran. A few weeks ago, Israel attacked Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility. Israel can sabotage and cause delays in Iran’s nuclear program, but they cannot eliminate it. The United States has stronger military capability than Israel, but does not want to enter into a full-scale war with Iran. Sustained air strikes by the United States would also delay but likely not end Iran’s nuclear program.
Ultimately, the only peaceful way to restrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions is to convince its citizens that the benefits of involvement in a global economy far outweigh the benefits of nuclear power.
The effect of the US imposed sanctions on economic growth in Iran. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48119109
Iran’s Uranium Conversion Facility near the city of Isfahan, around 254 miles south of the capital city Tehran. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/satellite-photos-reportedly-show-construction-iran-nuclear-site-n1245073