By: Bradford Kimball
Can the Blue Wall stop a Red Wave in 2022?
Since 2002, the party in power has consistently lost midterm elections. Traditional wisdom would state that the Democrats would suffer losses in 2022, similar to Obama’s Democrats in 2010. However, Democrats have a solid chance to hold both their House and Senate majorities. Due to Biden’s involvement in COVID-19 recovery and a groundswell of support for the Democrats by the general population, 2022 looks to be a much smoother election for the incumbent Democrats. The Democrats will most likely maintain control of the Senate as well as a hold of the House of Representatives.
Midterm elections are seen as a referendum on the incumbent president; the approval rating of that president should be examined as a bellwether for midterm performance. At the time of their respective midterm elections in 2010 and 2018, Trump and Obama had similar approval ratings, in the low 40% range. Under Obama, the Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010, while the Republicans under Trump lost 40 House seats in 2018. It is still early in Biden’s presidency, but his approval rating has stabilized around 53%, boding well for his party’s performance in 2022. Biden’s high approval rating, so far, will enable his party to buck history and perform well in the upcoming midterms.
In addition to Biden’s high approval ratings, far more Americans affiliate themselves with the Democratic party over the Republican Party. Of all Americans, 49% identify themselves with the Democrats while only 40% with the Republicans, the largest gap between the two parties since 2012. Thus, the policies and rhetoric of the Democratic party are broadly more popular than that of the GOP. The timing of the midterm elections is also very fortunate for President Biden. America’s economy will be recovering, and vaccines will be available for all Americans by November 2022. The American people will credit Biden and the Democratic party for these successes. The Democrats’ popularity and the fortunate timing of this election are both factors that play into the hands of the Democratic party.
Another factor that plays into the 2022 midterms is redistricting. In every midterm, all 435 members of the House of Representatives stand for election, and 34 senators will be up for re-election in 2022. This imminent midterm election carries more weight than most. It is the first year when the new congressional districts will be used after the 2020 census. Redistricting is usually crucial in shaping the political landscape of the United States, and 2022 is no different. Many key states that gained seats in the House of Representatives, such as North Carolina, Florida, and Texas, have Republicans redrawing their districts. This will most likely result in favorable Republican districts. However, Republicans only control redistricting in 188 districts compared to the Democrats in 73, so the advantage from redistricting is only likely to yield a couple of seats for Republicans. That is hardly enough to compensate for the Democrats’ wave of popular support. With the current six-seat advantage for the Democrats, small factors can make a difference. Nevertheless, the high party identification with the Democrats as well as Biden’s approval rating are good signs for the Democratic Party.
The Democrats control the Senate with an even smaller margin than in the House, as the Senate is split 50-50 with Vice-President Harris casting the tie-breaking vote. In 2022, the Democrats have to defend 14 seats, while Republicans have to defend 20. With six extra seats to defend, the Republicans have more ground to cover. Additionally, there are only four races where the Republicans have a chance of dethroning the Democratic incumbent: Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Each of those four states has a Democratic incumbent and was won by Biden in 2020. It should be noted that Chuck Grassley of Iowa and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin are undecided on their retirement and five Republican senators have already announced their intent to retire before 2022. Given Republican Senate retirements in purple states such as Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the GOP will need to spread their resources across many states to hold on to the Senate. As a swing-state voting in favor President Biden by 1.2% in 2020, Pennsylvania will be hard for Republicans to defend. An additional wild-card, Wisconsin, voted Biden by a mere 0.7%. It is hard to imagine that states that stood with the Democrats in 2020 would turn their backs on them during a time of economic and social recovery.
Though it is still early in the cycle, a political environment favorable to Democrats coupled with an advantageous Senate map bode well for the Democrats’ hopes in 2022. Compared to his predecessors, Biden’s relatively high approval rating is a good sign for his party, but Republican redistricting could pose a hurdle that the Democrats need to jump over. In the Senate, the Republicans have to spread their resources thin, with six more seats up for re-election than the Democrats. The Democrats have no seats to defend in states that Trump won whereas Republicans have to defend Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, both states that Biden won. Despite all of these contributing factors, it is very likely that the Democrats can prove history wrong and make gains in the upcoming midterms.
Aggregate of Biden’s approval rating per FiveThirtyEight
Senate Races in 2022. Light red states have Republican incumbents and light blue states a Democratic incumbents. Dark red seats are held by retiring Republicans. (Wikipedia)
